Second peak, maybe

Today Il Giornale di Sicilia, a newspaper of Palermo, wrote that the swine flu epidemic might hit again Italy, and that a further peak might occur in the next months. Apparently, the newspaper was quoting CDC Director Thomas Frieden. Meanwhile, the Bmj, a scientific journal, published an article on December 7th, with the title “Fall in swine flu cases may not signal an end of the epidemic, warns Professor Donaldson”, in which it was explained why experts are cautious about the end of the pandemic in Europe. It said also that UK health authorities are uneasy because “the continuing deaths from swine flu and the high rate of hospitalisations despite low levels of the disease in the community”. The death toll has reached 270 in the United Kingdom and there are still 1000 people in hospital. According to the last report of the Italian Ministry of Health, updated on December 24th , in Italy the deaths are 188. Campania accounts for 25% of the fatal cases (47 deaths). But Campania accounts for only 10% of the Italian population.

Drop of swine flu cases: week 48

The swine flu cases are decreasing in Italy. The national incidence has fallen to 0.664%. Only in two regions, in Sardinia and in Friuli Venezia Giulia, the pandemic is still at its peak. Meanwhile, the deaths have stopped to 114 (in Campania region 28), and to 410 the cases who needed respiratory aid. The government's ad is still aired on the State television to invite people to get the vaccine. Until now 611,425 people got the shot.

Swine flu past its peak: Week 47

The swine flu in Italy  is past its peak. According to the Iss, the incidence has decreased to 1.138%. The Marche incidence data is still the highest in the country, but it's considered not significant of the real situation in the region. So, there have been some troubles collecting datas. Abruzzo, Emilia-Romagna, Sardinia and Basilicata have also high incidence, while Campania and Lombardia are likely past the peak.

Flu peaked in Italy, maybe

As the death toll soars to 85, the swine flu is still in the news. Today the Italian Deputy Health Minister Ferruccio Fazio has said that the vaccine is still effective, even though the virus has mutated. According to Fazio, it's likely that the flu pandemic has already peaked in Italy, infecting only some milions of people. Nevertheless, it's crucial that people in the high risk group get the vaccine, said Fazio. Gianni Rezza, Director of Infectious Desease Department of Istituto superiore di sanità, has confirmed that people need to stay alert and get vaccinated (if at-risk). According to the Ministry, more than 300,000 people have got the vaccine, out of almost 4 milions of doses available.

Vaccination program on time?

Can the vaccination program against swine flu be on time? According to a recent study, it can be expected “an autumn/winter wave in the Northern hemisphere strikingly earlier than expected”. In Italy the peak time of the pandemic will occur from 17 October to 23 November. “The analysis shows the potential for an early epidemic peak occurring in October/November in the Northern hemisphere, likely before large-scale vaccination campaigns could be carried out” write the authors. The simulations refer to a worst-case scenario, with no antiviral drugs used.
This is quite worrying. “The vaccine has been expected for the beginning of November” has said pharmacologist Silvio Garattini, interviewed by Agi press agency. “The trouble is that the pandemic has reached Italy earlier than expected, and if it carries on like, that the vaccine could be useless, because protection develops after 15 days from the shot”. According to the expert, it's necessary that all the Italians in the high risk groups get the shot by the middle of November, but this goal is "almost impossible".
This is a grim forecast, but for once it looks like based on sound science.